During the 27th Annual FAA Commercial Aerospace Forecast Conference at Washington, D.C. March 12 - 13, the FAA forecast that U.S. airline traffic will be depressed this year, but rebound strongly in 2003.  The FAA also believes commercial aviation will grow steadily during the next decade.

    This assessment of commercial aviation's future assumes continued economic recovery (national and world), small increases in fuel prices, and no terrorism involving commercial aircraft.  The terrorist attacks and subsequent closing of major airports -- some longer than others -- created a severe but uneven impact.  Reagan National Airport was affected the worst, losing 62.5% of all operations, commercial, general aviation, and military flights.

    For those airports that resumed business quickly, the number of air passengers dropped dramatically.  The FAA predicts that for fiscal year 2002, which began in October, the number will drop 12% to 600 million.  Since fiscal years run from October 1 to September 30, the effect of 9/11 wil be more fully felt this year.   Three years ago, passenger emplanements number 329 billion with the FAA forecasting an average annual rate of growth of 4% until 2013.

    The picture is not all bleak for commercial aviation because the sharp declines in flights by major carriers was somewhat offset by an increase in flights by regional aircraft.  Regional air carriers are those that have 70 or fewer seats.

    Fractional ownership is also stealing passengers from the major airlines.   Corporations are finding it more cost effective to split the ownership, maintenance and pilots costs of a corporate jet with other businesses.  Fractional ownership, the rising cost of air fare, the hassel of security screening, and the increasing use of video conferencing may make it difficult for major airlines to lure the business flyer back to the airport.

    The Department of Transportation hopes that security screen delays will be a temporary problem.  Secretary Norman Mineta's goal to screen a passenger in ten minutes needs more personnel, equipment and money than has been currently allocated.

    Still, the FAA believes that passengers will return and predicts future growth for commercial aviation.

    FAA predictions for general aviation will be released next month in Witchita, Kansas at the 10th Annual FAA General Aviation Forecast Conference.

    Many feel general aviation was hit even harder than commercial aviation.  While Reagan National was closed completely for about a month and gradually resumed flights, three general aviation airports in the Washintgon, D. C. were closed for several months.

    College Park Airport in Maryland, which has been in operation since 1909 when the Wright Brothers established a flight school there, was closed to all but state and federal traffic until recently.  After months of negotiation, airport personnel managed to strike a deal with the government that reopened College Park, Hyde Fied, and Potomac Airfield on a graduated use basis.

    9/11 might have knocked the aviation industry to its collective knees in the United States, but it's difficult to imagine aircraft will disappear from the American skies.

    "The designer (of an airplane) does not only see the aircraft that is flying today," Willy Messerschmitt once said, "No, he looks much farther into the future.  Long before an aircraft is finished, he knows how it could have been improved.  Our work will never cease."

    
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PIONEER WOMEN PILOTS

Forgotten Heroines of the Sky

   The first balloon flight put humans in the air in 1783.  Within a year, the first woman had gone aloft as a passenger.  Then the first woman learned to fly a balloon, igniting a debate that continued for almost two hundred years -- "ought women to aviate"?

   While men debated the question, women aviated.  Some notable female pilots in the United States include Princess Carlotta who debuted her career as a balloonist on July 4, 1880.  Her stylish ascensions and precision landings made her hugely popular.   When she retired 11 years later, she had made more ascensions  than any woman in the world, and more than any man living in the United States.

    Two women share the distinction of being the first woman to solo an aircraft in the United States.  Blance Stuart Scott, the only woman taught to fly by Glenn Curtiss, had spent three days learning theory and making short taxing runs.  Curtiss blocked the throttle so she couldn't get up the speed to take off, but on September 2, 1910,  "something happened to the throttle block" and Scott flew.

    Within a month, Scott was flying with the Curtiss Exhibition Team.  Her most spectacular stunt was the Death Dive in which she plunged from 4,000 feet to as low as 200 feet.  She made up to $5000 (1910 dollars!) a week while performing.  It was never established if Scott's solo flight was accidental or intentional, so the official honor of being the first American female pilot went to Bessica Raiche.

    Raiche and her husband had decided to build a biplane in sections in their living room and then put it together outside.   After finishing the biplane, Raiche flew the plane a few feet off the ground on September 16, 1910 and earned her place in aviation history.

    The honor of being the first licensed woman pilot in the United States goes to Harriet Quimby, who received her license on August 1, 1911.  A year later, Quimby was the first woman to fly across the English Channel.  Her aviation career was cut short when she died in an airplane accident three months later.

    Quimby's death highlights another problem women faced.  Male flight instructors often balked at teaching women to fly because they feared the death of a female pilot would set aviation back.  Time has proven this fear was groundless.  And the death of women pilots did not stop other women from learning to fly or pushing the boundaries of flight.

    One of the women undeterred by the dangers of flying was Ruth Law, who soloed one month after seeing Quimby crash.   Encouraged by her brother and husband, Law had a record-breaking career as an female aviator.  During her flying career, she set many records such as the American nonstop record for both men and women and the world nonstop record for women.

    Flying close behind Law was Katherine Stinson, who earned her pilot's license in 1912.  A daring stunt pilot who attracted a lot of attention, Stinson set four endurance and distance records and became the darling of Asia when she toured China and Japan giving exhibition flights in 1916.

    Women have faced a rocky path in aviation, but Stinson's personal philosophy sums up the reason these women flew.   "If other people can fly, " she said, " I don't see why I can't." 

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 IA SEMINAR SMASH HIT

"Great job!"  "See you next year."

   Sixteen IAs attended A.E.C.'s Inspection Authorization Renewal Seminar.  This annual seminar is required for every IA who has not met the requirements for currency as found in FAR 65.93.

    Guest speakers included Randy Knuteson from Kelly Aerospace in Montgomery who presented a class on fuel and turbocharging systems.   Alan Williams, Dan Riley, and Jack Howatt, instructors at the Aviation Campus of Wallace Community College, updated attendees on aircraft electrical systems, composites, and FAA regulations.

    Former A.E.C. owners and former instructors at the Aviation Campus, Joe Stroud and Lew Flowers, rounded out the instructor pool.   Flowers finished off the regulation requirements and also covered inspections while Stroud covered major repairs and alterations.  Tom Mullin, an FAA Inspector from Birmingham, wore two hats during the seminar.  He attended to renew his Inspection Authorization certificate, but he also put on his FAA hat to run the Question and Answer session at the end of the seminar.

    A.E.C. would like to thank Kelly Aerospace, Michelin tires, Aircraft Technical Publishers, General Aviation News, Aviation Maintenance Magazine, and AAR Distributors for donating products, samples and literature. 

Gayle Johnson

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    It seems that once again candidates for the Inspection Authorization license are having trouble passing the test.  I would like to offer some suggestions for test preparation.

    1.   Review the A&P test questions and answers using a test prep series, such as the one published by ASA.

    2.   Study an IA Test Prep Book, such as the one published by ASA and available at A.E.C.  Remember, this is the only FAA test whose questions have never been published.  Any test prep is based on "best guess" questions.

    3.  Memorize FAR 65.   You need to know exactly what is says.  Look for trick questions based on FAR 65.

    4.   Review FAR 43 and know what it says.

    5.   Carefully read and understand FAA 8082-11 "Inspection Authorization Knowledge Test Guide."  Be sure you are familiar with the sample forms in Appendix 1 and how to complete them.  Review the publications listed in Appendix 2 "List of Reference Materials and Subject Matter Codes."  Pay particular attention to Part 21 and sub part numbers of Part 91.

    6.   Read and memorize sample test questions and answers starting on page 14 of 8082-11.

    7.   Read and follow "Suggestions for Studying for the IA Test" on page 16 of 8082-11.

    8.  Be sure you know how to use Type Certificate Data Sheets and specifications.

    9.   Review Advisory Circulars 43.13-1 and 43.13-2.  Be sure you know how to work the different figures and graphs in those publications.

    10.   Be sure you know how to read, interpret, and record Airworthiness Directives.

    Sound like a lot of work?  It is.  But authorization to inspect aircraft is an important responsibility.  Plus, getting your IA will open doors to the big money jobs in aviation.

Lew Flowers                                                                         
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Prop & Rotor

Why do I need the Military Comp?

    Several times a month, here at AEC, we receive a call from a former military pilot that did not take the Military Comp Exam when they were on active military flying status. They did not plan on flying, but now have a job opportunity and need a Commercial Helicopter, or in some cases, a Commercial Airplane rating.

    The Military Comp Exam is taken instead of the full Commercial Helicopter or Airplane Exam. It also allows the candidate to bypass the Commercial check ride. A real plus for the Commercial rating is that once you get the rating, either airplane or helicopter, the other becomes an add-on-rating and the requirements are not as great.

    The FARs detail all of the requirements for aeronautical experience, flight proficiency, and practical test procedures. FAR 61.73 deals with: Military pilots or former military pilots: Special rules. FAR 61.121 thru 61.133 deals with commercial pilots. By looking at the two regulations, it is easy to see the advantages offered to military pilots and the thousands of dollars saved when a qualified individual takes the Military Comp.  Most pilots have a real problem finding a helicopter. When they do they are amazed at the cost per hour and the number of hours they have to fly even when they have thousands of military flying hours.

    Like any qualification, it is better to have it and not need it, than to need it and not have it.

Leon Ward I           
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FAA NEWS

First - Ever Public Online Forum

    The FAA will hold its first-ever public on-line forum between April 1 - 19.  The purpose of the forum is to see public opinion regarding the sport pilot / light-sport aircraft NPRM.  The online forum will supplement the traditional comment period which is scheduled to run through May 5, 2002.   The website for the forum is www.rulemakingpublicforum.com .

    The FAA has listed 16 questions on the webpage.   Any interested party can read the  questions online and post answers and comments electronically.  The FAA plans to monitor the responses and may ask questions to clarify any answers or comments electronically.  The FAA plans to monitor the responses and may ask questions to clarify any answers or comments.   These questions reflect the topics the FAA is interested in but they welcome any suggestions.

    Interested parties can continue to make comments either by snail mail or email until the comment close date of May 6.

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From the Editor…

     March is Women's History Month.  While this isn't news, the important role women played in the pioneer years of avation might be.  Female wannabe pilots faced an odd dilemna.  Many people felt the skill too complex for women to learn while aviation enthusiasts soon saw that women pilots helped promote the industry.  After all, if a woman could learn to fly, it must be easy and safe!

    From aviation's inception, women pilots proved to be a major draw at flying exhibits.  They played an important role in establishing flight as a feasible transportation system.

    Unfortunately, many female aviatiors whose exploits regularly made headline news in aviation's early history are not part of mainstream history.  Their achievements have been overshadowed by the mystic of Amelia Earhart.

    I don't mean to belitte Ms. Earhart, but she wasn't the only female aviator to break records.  As you'll see in my tribute, women were involved in aviation as pilots from it's beginning.  

    I hope you enjoy this issue of the Link.